IN THE NAME OF PEACE:THE BATTLE OF UKRAINE

Scene 1: Sunflowers will bloom!

A woman confronted a heavily armed Russian soldier and offered him sunflower seeds – so that flowers would grow if he died there on Ukraine’s soil. 'You’re occupants, you’re fascists,' she shouts, standing about a metre from the soldier. 'Take these seeds and put them in your pockets so at least sunflowers will grow when you all lie down here. ‘

It’s been a few days since the world has gone into havoc. Russian troops have proven exceedingly lethal for the Ukrainian administration, military and civilians. Scores of Ukrainian civilians were displaced from their homes in Kyiv on Friday after an unidentified projectile struck just outside their apartment block before dawn, severely damaging the building and wounding the unfortunate residents with one being critically injured. The apparent Russian strike left behind a large crater that now sits just a few yards from a playground, which remained empty on Friday except for a little boy digging in the soil. The total no. of civilian casualties in Ukraine remains unknown with no comprehensive release by the Ukrainian government. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that at least 137 people have been killed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denied any attacks on civilians while Ukrainians are huddled in basements and bunkers as the invasion deepens. 

Scene 2: No to war! 

No to war!” chanted a crowd of mostly young Russians gathered on Nevsky Prospekt, the main street in St Petersburg, with candles and banners in hand. “I have no words, it’s just disgusting,” a young woman at the rally was quoted by Al Jazeera. “What is there to say? We feel powerlessness, anguish.”I am embarrassed for my country. To be honest with you, I am speechless. War is always scary. We don’t want this,” Nikita Golubev, participating in a rally at Moscow’s Pushkinskaya Square told The Guardian. “Why are we doing this?” the 30-year-old teacher asked.

Police in Russia arrested nearly 1,400 people at anti-war protests staged in cities across the country after President Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine, an independent monitor said. More than 700 people were arrested in Moscow and about 340 people in the second largest city Saint Petersburg, the monitor said. The invasion of Ukraine is taking place during an unprecedented crackdown on the Russian opposition, with most protest leaders assassinated, jailed or forced out of the country. Jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny, who used to mobilise Russia’s largest protests against Putin, is serving a two-and-a-half-year sentence in a penal colony outside Moscow. Some Russian activists called on social media for people to take to the streets after Putin launched the offensive on Ukraine in the early hours of Thursday. One petition, started by a prominent human rights advocate, Lev Ponomavyov, garnered over 150,000 signatures within several hours and 289,000 by the end of the day. More than 250 journalists put their names on an open letter decrying the aggression. Another one was signed by some 250 scientists, while 194 municipal council members in Moscow and other cities signed a third. 

THE WORLD IS, INDEED, GOVERNED BY MORBID, OBSOLETE AND UNGOVERNED BRAINS !!! 

But how did we get to this crisis??? 

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent state, formalised with a referendum in December 1991. On 21 January 1990, over 300,000 Ukrainians organized a human chain for Ukrainian independence between Kyiv and Lviv. Ukraine officially declared itself an independent country on 24 August 1991, when the communist Supreme Soviet (parliament) of Ukraine proclaimed that Ukraine would no longer follow the laws of the USSR and only the laws of the Ukrainian SSR, de facto declaring Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union. On 1 December, voters approved a referendum formalizing independence from the Soviet Union. Over 90% of Ukrainian citizens voted for independence, with majorities in every region, including 56% in Crimea. The Soviet Union formally ceased to exist on 26 December, when the presidents of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia (the founding members of the USSR) met in Białowieża Forest to formally dissolve the Union in accordance with the Soviet Constitution. With this Ukraine’s independence was formalized de jure and recognized by the international community. On 1 December 1991 Ukrainian voters' first presidential election elected Leonid Kravchuk. The presidency (1994–2005) of the 2nd President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma was surrounded by numerous corruption scandals and the lessening of media freedoms; including the Cassette Scandal. However, the economy recovered.

In 2004, Kuchma announced that he would not run for re-election. Two major candidates emerged in the 2004 presidential election. Viktor Yanukovych, the incumbent Prime Minister, supported by both Kuchma and by the Russian Federation, wanted closer ties with Russia. The main opposition candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, called for Ukraine to turn its attention westward and aim to eventually join the EU. In the runoff election, Yanukovych officially won by a narrow margin, but Yushchenko and his supporters alleged that vote-rigging and intimidation cost him many votes, especially in eastern Ukraine. A political crisis erupted after the opposition started massive street protests in Kyiv and other cities ("Orange Revolution"), and the Supreme Court of Ukraine ordered the election results null and void. A second runoff found Viktor Yushchenko the winner. During the Yushchenko term, relations between Russia and Ukraine often appeared strained as Yushchenko looked towards improved relations with the European Union and less toward Russia. Later, Yanukovych won the 2010 presidential elections. In November 2013, President Yanukovych did not sign the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement and instead pursued closer ties with Russia. This move sparked protests on the streets of Kyiv and, ultimately, the 2014 Ukrainian revolution. Protesters set up camps in Kyiv’s Maidan Nezalezhnosti (Independence Square and in December 2013 and January 2014 protesters started taking over various government buildings, first in Kyiv and, later, in Western Ukraine. Battles between protesters and police resulted in about 80 deaths in February 2014. Federation in the same month, the parliament voted to remove Yanukovich, who flees. Within days, armed men seize parliament in the Ukrainian region of Crimea and raise the Russian flag. Moscow annexes the territory after a March 16 referendum which shows overwhelming support in Crimea for joining the Russian Federation. The Crimean crisis was followed by pro-Russian unrest in east Ukraine and south Ukraine. In April 2014 Ukrainian separatists self-proclaimed the Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic and held referendums on 11 May 2014; the separatists claimed nearly 90% voted in favour of independence. Later in April 2014, fighting between the Ukrainian army and pro-Ukrainian volunteer battalions on one side, and forces supporting the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics on the other side, escalated into the War in Donbas. By December 2014 more than 6,400 people had died in this conflict and according to United Nations figures it led to over half a million people becoming internally displaced within Ukraine and two hundred thousand refugees fleeing to (mostly) Russia and other neighbouring countries. 

Since February 2015, France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine have attempted to broker a cessation in violence through the Minsk Accords. The agreement includes provisions for a cease-fire, withdrawal of heavy weaponry, and full Ukrainian government control throughout the conflict zone. However, efforts to reach a diplomatic settlement and satisfactory resolution have been unsuccessful. In April 2016, NATO announced that the alliance would deploy four battalions to Eastern Europe, rotating troops through Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to deter possible future Russian aggression elsewhere in Europe, particularly in the Baltics. These battalions were joined by two U.S. Army tank brigades, deployed to Poland in September 2017 to further bolster the alliance’s deterrence presence.

Ukraine has been the target of several cyberattacks since the conflict started in 2014. In December 2015, more than 225,000 people lost power across Ukraine in an attack, and in December 2016 parts of Kyiv experienced another power blackout following a similar attack targeting a Ukrainian utility company. In June 2017, government and business computer systems in Ukraine were hit by the NotPetya cyberattack; the crippling attack, attributed to Russia, spread to computer systems worldwide and caused billions of dollars in damages.

Security assistance to Ukraine increased further during the Donald Trump administration, alongside continued pressure on Russia over its involvement in eastern Ukraine. In January 2018, the United States imposed new sanctions on twenty-one individuals, including several Russian officials, and nine companies linked to the conflict. In March 2018, the State Department approved the sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, the first sale of lethal weaponry since the conflict began. In October 2018, Ukraine joined the United States and seven other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries in a series of large-scale air exercises in western Ukraine. The exercises came after Russia held its annual military exercises in September 2018, the largest since the fall of the Soviet Union. 

In April 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former comedian, overwhelmingly defeated the pro-Russia incumbent Petro Poroshenko in a presidential election. Zelenskyy’s party also wins a majority of seats in the parliament – this is a first in Ukrainian history. Zelenskyy’s campaign promises include ending the war with Russia and rooting corruption out of the Ukrainian government. Early in 2021, Zelenskyy cracked down on pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarchs, including Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of Putin. Subsequently, Putin deploys increasing numbers of troops near the Ukrainian border and publishes an article claiming that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.” By December, tens of thousands of Russian troops are deployed to the borders and Putin issues demands to NATO and the United States. Among these demands is that Ukraine never is admitted to NATO – a request rejected by the Biden administration. On Feb. 21, 2022, Russia recognizes breakaway Ukrainian regions as sovereign. Following the breakdown of relations with NATO and the West in late February, Putin recognized these territories as independent states and sent troops in to “keep the peace”. Days after recognizing the breakaway territories, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The invasion began in the eastern Ukrainian territory of Donbas. Zelinsky declared martial law in Ukraine and officially broke diplomatic ties with Russia. Putin’s actions were condemned across the world and within Russia. Putin’s announcement paves the way for Russia to openly send troops and weapons to the long-running conflict pitting Ukrainian forces against Moscow-backed rebels. On February 23, 2022, Ukraine’s parliament voted to approve a national state of emergency in response to the threat of a Russian invasion. On February 24, 2022, Russian forces unleash an attack on Ukraine, as Putin demands the neighbouring country’s army lay down its weapons. In an address broadcast on state television, “We urge you to lay down arms immediately and go home. I will explain: all servicemen of the Ukrainian army who with this requirement, can freely leave the area of military actions and return to their families,” he says in an address broadcast on state television.

Putin also urges other nations to not intervene.

“Whoever would try to stop us and further create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any outcome.”

Zelensky, reminding many of Churchill during WW2, said – “We know for sure that we don’t need the war. Not a Cold War, not a hot war. Not a hybrid one. But if we’ll be attacked by the [enemy] troops, if they try to take our country away from us, our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children, we will defend ourselves. Not attack, but defend ourselves. And when you will be attacking us, you will see our faces, not our backs, but our faces.”

And we all know what is happening since then. After attacking several Ukrainian cities and military bases, the Russian military is now advancing to take over Kyiv, Ukraine’s seat of government. The explosions in the capital city by Russia are an attempt to dismantle the government and replace it with Russia’s regime. Multiple explosions were heard in Kyiv in the early hours of Friday in the central area of the capital city. One of the explosions occurred between metro station Poznjaky and Kharkivska. Ukraine’s operational command, their anti-aircraft defences are attacking Russian aircraft and drones. As a stunned world watched the Russian attack unfold in Ukraine and key US and European leaders condemned the invasion, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called up Russian President Vladimir Putin and “appealed for an immediate cessation of violence”.

Russia has captured Chernobyl nuclear site after a fierce battle with Ukrainian troops. This could hamper efforts to maintain the nuclear facility as it is the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster.

India, China, and UAE abstained from the UNSC resolution on the Russian invasion of Ukraine while the remaining eleven members voted in favour of the resolution. As Russia holds the presidency for February, it vetoed the resolution. Facebook banned the accounts of several Russian leaders over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In retaliation, the Russian authorities announced a partial restriction of access to Facebook. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy dispelled rumours that he had fled a country via a recorded video where he can be heard saying, “We’re defending our independence and our country, and that’s how it’ll be.”The 47-nation Council of Europe has suspended Russia from the organisation of its human rights over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The European Union has agreed to freeze Putin’s and Lavrov’s assets along with imposing other sanctions. Another package of sanctions is underway.

So why is Russia threatening now? 

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is a continuation of the one that began in 2014. But recent political developments within Ukraine, the US, Europe, and Russia help explain why Putin may feel now is the time to act. Among those developments are the 2019 election of Ukrainian President Zelensky, a comedian who played a president on TV and then became the actual president. In addition to the other thing Zelensky for, he promised during his campaign that he would “reboot” peace talks to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, including dealing with Putin directly to resolve the conflict. Russia, too, likely thought it could get something out of this: It saw Zelensky, a political novice, as someone who might be more open to Russia’s point of view. 

What Russia wants is for Zelensky to implement the 2014 and ’15 Minsk agreements, deals that would bring the pro-Russian regions back into Ukraine but would amount to, as one expert said, a “Trojan horse” for Moscow to wield influence and control. No Ukrainian president could accept those terms, and so Zelensky, under continued Russian pressure, has turned to the West for help, talking openly about wanting to join NATO. Public opinion in Ukraine has also strongly swayed to support for ascension into Western bodies like the EU and NATO. That may have left Russia feeling as though it has exhausted all of its political and diplomatic tools to bring Ukraine back into the fold. “Moscow security elites feel that they have to act now because if they don’t, military cooperation between NATO and Ukraine will become even more intense and even more sophisticated,” Sarah Pagung, of the German Council on Foreign Relations, said. 

Putin tested the West on Ukraine again in the spring of 2021, gathering forces and equipment near parts of the border. The troop buildup got the attention of the new Biden administration, which led to an announced summit between the two leaders. Days later, Russia began drawing down some of the troops on the border. Putin’s perspective on the US has also shifted, experts said. To Putin, the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal (which Moscow would know something about) and the US’s domestic turmoil are signs of weakness. Putin may also see the West divided on the US’s role in the world. Biden is still trying to put the transatlantic alliance back together after the distrust that built up during the Trump administration. Some of Biden’s diplomatic blunders have alienated European partners, specifically that aforementioned messy Afghanistan withdrawal and the nuclear submarine deal that Biden rolled out with the UK and Australia that caught France off guard. Europe has its internal fractures, too. The EU and the UK are still dealing with the fallout from Brexit. Everyone is grappling with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Germany has a new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, after 16 years of Angela Merkel, and the new coalition government is still trying to establish its foreign policy. Germany, along with other European countries, imports Russian natural gas, and energy prices are spiking right now. France has elections in April, and French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to carve out a spot for himself in these negotiations.

Those divisions — which Washington is trying very hard to keep contained — may have emboldened Putin. Some experts noted Putin has his domestic pressures to deal with, including the coronavirus and a struggling economy, and he may think such an adventure is boosting his standing at home, just like it did in 2014 (at least not among anti-war protestors in St. Petersburg). 

However, diplomacy, as we can see, has failed miserably. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declined the US offer to evacuate Kyiv. He blustered, “The fight is here, I need ammunition, not a ride.” So what is the future? 

There is no doubt that Putin, being a Soviet child, can’t get over the rose-tinted days of Stalin and Khrushchev. Losing Ukraine to the West would be devastating for Putin. Besides, there are many economic and trade reasons also for the invasion. Russia is nothing of a superpower now. Rather a crumbling economy marred by authoritarianism and the decline of democracy. What we are seeing right now is history in the making and history will not be kind to Putin. 

Russian forces have struck targets across Ukraine and seized key facilities and swaths of territory. The Ukrainian military is no match for this Russian juggernaut. Although some reports suggest Ukrainian troops have rebuffed attacks in certain parts of the country, it seems more likely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will decide just how far Russia goes into Ukraine. Nobody thought Putin would have attacked Ukraine unless he had already devised a reliable end game, given the costs of an intractable conflict. But Putin’s best-laid plans might easily unravel in the face of popular Ukrainian national resistance and an insurgency. If Russia limits its offensive to the east and south of Ukraine, a sovereign Ukrainian government will not stop fighting. It will enjoy reliable military and economic support from abroad and the backing of a united population. But if Russia pushes on to occupy much of the country and install a Kremlin-appointed puppet regime in Kyiv, a more protracted and thorny conflagration will begin. Putin will face a long, bloody insurgency that could spread across multiple borders, perhaps even reaching into Belarus to challenge Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin’s stalwart ally and a brutal autocrat. Widening unrest could destabilize other countries in Russia’s orbit, such as Kazakhstan, and even spill into Russia itself. When conflicts begin, unpredictable and unimaginable outcomes can become all too real. Putin may not be prepared for the insurgency—or insurgencies—to come. 

Many a great power has waged war against a weaker one, only to get bogged down as a result of its failure to have a well-considered end game. This lack of foresight has been especially palpable in troubled occupations. It was one thing for the United States to invade Vietnam in 1965, Afghanistan in 2001, and Iraq in 2003; likewise for the Soviet Union to enter Afghanistan in 1979. It was an altogether more difficult task to continue in those countries in the face of stubborn insurgencies. Russia can likely seize as much of Ukraine’s territory as it chooses. But plans to pacify Ukraine will require far more than the reserve forces Putin has suggested might occupy the territory as “peacekeepers” after initial combat objectives are met. Thanks to Putin’s aggression, anti-Russian fervour and home-grown nationalism have surged in Ukraine. Ukrainians have spent the last eight years planning, training, and equipping themselves for resisting a Russian occupation. Ukraine understands that no U.S. or NATO forces will come to its rescue on the battlefield(history has taught them huge lessons. Its strategy doesn’t depend on turning back a Russian invasion, but rather on bleeding Moscow to make occupation untenable. An insurgency against Russian forces in Ukraine will take time to gather steam and achieve its goals. Resistance movements can take years—not months—to mature, organize, and achieve a meaningful offensive tempo. 

Early on, it is likely the Russians will uncover many rings of insurgents, quickly unmasking the insurgency’s initial leaders after years of Russian intelligence collection. But insurgencies adapt swiftly—far faster than the large, structured armies they are fighting—and new leaders emerge moulded by their adverse early experiences. Their agility becomes an enormous advantage. Russia would hope to either limit its incursion to parts of Ukraine whose populations might be more inclined to accept Russian rule or act with such lightning speed to seize and pacify the country before a viable resistance can find its legs. But Russia’s military advantages over Ukrainian forces will diminish as the enemy it fights changes from an organized army to a decentralized and mobile resistance. Occupation forces will be subject to harassing attacks designed to both inflict casualties and undermine military discipline. An influence campaign replete with horrific images of carnage—of both civilian Ukrainian and Russian military deaths—will aim to sow antiwar sentiment in Russia and counter Moscow’s narrative that their forces were welcomed as liberators by grateful locals.

Putin’s motivations in starting this war of choice remain the subject of great debate. They may become clearer in the coming days and weeks as Russia continues its offensive. But if his aims are maximalist—redrawing borders or even toppling the current government—an insurgency is inevitable. For both Putin and his enemies, it will be hard to control the forces that have now been unleashed.

In all this ruckus, we want people to live and love each other. If a war seems imminent now, then its end is also imminent. But whatever happens, we can’t let the civilians die. After all these years, people still don’t learn from their past. Why don’t we give peace a chance? What’s stopping us? These leaders need us more than we need them. Don’t we remember the storming of the Bastille? Don’t we recall MLK's civil disobedience? What happened to the legacy of Gandhi? Mandela? We don’t have legal powers. But we have a voice, a thunderous voice. After the bloodbath of WW2, the time has come again to launch a crusade in the name of peace and humanity. 

SO, IN THE NAME OF PEACE, LET US ALL UNITE!!!